2021年2月号 D項

Donald Trump’s support base are unaffiliated voters, and that is what makes him a unique candidate. If a candidate is from a party, they have to balance between the benefit and ideology, while Donald Trump was able to steal both at the same time with his strength. What current political parties are afraid of is that the primary elections are getting trolled by those type of dark horse.

Donald Trump and Berneie Sanders phenomena’s in 2016 are both applied to be in this situation. This is a significant thing in the U.S.A

1. There are not so many things that President of the U.S. can do individually for domestic affairs.
It can be simply seen from Obama’s presidential period.
The president can only issue executive orders at the best which means that he cannot legislate any laws without the help from congress.
The president can move the politics only when either the public opinion or congressman and policy makers are on his side.
For example, the fact that George Bush Jr. was able to start the Iraq war was not because the president has a great authority but the public opinion and congress supported the action after 9/11 happened.

10．How does Donald Trump got selected in 2016 Republican convention?
Will undecidable politics be a deterrence to Trump’s populisms?

Policy will only be realized when the President, public opinion, and policy experts come together. Vise versa, it is a deterrence to the concentration of power.

Mr. Machidori’s theory:
The current situation in which the policy process is likely to get stuck in the United States in recent years is the reflection of the divisional government and polarization is a manifestation of public opinion. The only way left for voters is to keep the administration and the majority of congress in check with each other to prevent biased policies from being chosen. It can be said that the undecided politics is not deviant as a democratic system, but rather reflects the intentions of voters. The following 2 points were more important points than the meaning of the 2016 presidential election.

1. The consequences of federal elections
2. Whether the policy elite will incorporate the candidate’s populist remarks into a concrete policy blueprint

In July 2016, many Republican big names including former president George W. Bush’s father and son, former presidential candidate Romney, McCain, were absent from the speech to show the disapproval to Donald Trump, which exposed the division within the party.
At this time, the battle between Trump and the Establishment was entangled to the end.
Nevertheless, the Republican National Committee and congress leadership made the party convention a success.
This is because neglecting anti-Trump sentiment adversely affects the turnout of congress elections. So they took on the conservative Mike Pence for the Vice President.
 

(Written by Chiba and Translated  by Shimada)

１０.　２０１６年共和党大会で、どの様に、トランプが選ばれたか？

――「決められない政治」はトランプ的ポピュリズムの抑止力になるか？

大統領本人の資質が「玉」なら世論は「風」で、政策エリート集団は「技」であり、これらが合わさった時、政策は実現していく。（権力分散における抑止力でもある。）

・待鳥氏の説：
近年の米国が分割政府と分極化の中で、政策過程が行き詰まり易くなっている現状は民意の現れであるとーー有権者に残された方法は政権と議会の多数党を互いに牽制させて、どちらかに、偏った政策が選択されていくのを防ぐ様にすること。――
即ち、決まらない政治には民主主義体制として逸脱的でなく、むしろ有権者の意向を反映したものと言える。
即ち、次のことが言える。
⓵連邦議会選挙の帰趨
②政策エリートが候補者のポピュリズム的発言を具体的な政策の設計図に落とし込むかどうかである。
上記２つの点が２０１６年にある意味では大統領選挙以上にカギを握る点であった。

２０１６年７月、共和党大会は元・大統領のブッシュの父と息子、元・大統領候補ロムニー、マケイン等の大物が揃って欠席し、氏名を争ったクルーズも演説を引き受けながらも、トランプを支持せず、党内分断を露呈した。
この時、トランプとエスタブリッシュメントの争いが最後までもつれ込んだ。
トランプ的候補者を止めるには民主党の「特別代議員制度」を設けるべきとの意見もあった。
それでも、共和党・全国委員会と議会指導部が党大会を成功に尽くした。
これは、反トランプ感情を放置することが議会選挙の投票率に悪影響を与えるからである。　そこで、副大統領に保守派のイク・ペンス（インディアナ州）を担いだのである。。